నైరూప్య

Research on existence identification of “fear effect”from antidumping investigation

Zhang Hua, Liu Shunchang

Aside from well-known effects of trade restrict, trade diversion and secondary protection, the research on the area that whether a country use antidumping investigation will distort the volume that the accused country exports to third markets is rare. To systematically identify this so-called fear effect, a case that EU antidumping investigation against China’s seamless steel pipe was used. We first develop a dummy variable model to test whether the time that EU conducted antidumping investigation was the breakpoint of the trend that China’s seamless steel pipe exported to US. Then we use the granger causality test and quantile regression to remove some other factors that may lead to change the trend that China’s seamless steel pipe exported to US. We find that EU antidumping investigation against China’s seamless steel pipe has decreased China’s exports to US. Namely, the fear effect is obvious. These judgment methods provide technical support for a comprehensive understanding and scientific judgment on the trade effects of antidumping. It also provides possible paradigm for similar situation in international trade and other economic activities