నైరూప్య

Confirming the lack of acceleration in the pacific sea levels

Albert Parker

There are few tide gauges on the shores of the Pacific Ocean that have the quality and length demonstrating the non-accelerating naturally oscillating pattern of sea levels. A simple but reliable analysis of these tide gauges based on linear regressions shows that the average relative rate of rise is below1 mm/year without any detectable accelerating component. The land motion analysis based on the satellite GPS suggests this rate is mostly the result of subsidy, and therefore the average absolute rate of rise is very likely close to 0mm/year. Themuch larger rates of rises thatwere computed in other studies are the result of selectively focusing on the short time windows magnifying the effect of the multi decadal oscillations and/or of the use of incomplete scattered data arbitrarily extended from the past and reconstructed to the present with procedures that are everything but transparent. The sea level behaviour within the Pacific appears to be substantially free of any acceleration and is driven mostly by the natural, periodic causes, similarly to the rest of the world Oceans.